Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 9.571793 11.228296 13.045818 15.182588 17.620203 20.308490 23.491609
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 7.052226 9.304249 12.029701 15.545136 19.930691 25.190462 31.941848
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.219778 7.647368 10.849492 15.321494 21.334068 29.057705 39.634719
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.862782 6.230666 9.607253 14.667153 21.927057 31.814822 46.110311
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.955979 5.209485 8.658847 14.162952 22.522739 34.496995 52.625460
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.425098 4.627341 8.216678 14.266544 23.915139 38.337449 61.029714
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.961305 4.043036 7.647074 14.045000 24.724627 41.328096 68.386762
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.746513 3.846943 7.674455 14.770437 27.070071 46.816662 79.927246
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.509333 3.553022 7.471450 15.051848 28.680118 51.245740 90.124058
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.286292 3.235668 7.165879 15.091561 29.852206 55.025245 99.527713
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.101738 2.956880 6.883241 15.121663 30.984984 58.797520 109.158973
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.042271 2.946654 7.136084 16.205578 34.129662 66.236129 125.455727
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.944514 2.831416 7.165469 16.878043 36.628860 72.843121 140.988169
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.852775 2.711501 7.168355 17.502405 39.111614 79.641387 157.392689
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.722781 2.457708 6.824415 17.342075 40.024631 83.639385 169.089850
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.585080 2.142388 6.274956 16.645499 39.760098 85.392623 176.800773
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.479005 1.887119 5.821824 16.094514 39.723284 87.550763 185.377431
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.418452 1.756449 5.664377 16.215287 41.134378 92.635560 199.817121
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.353347 1.589226 5.375191 15.969282 41.700148 96.056099 211.245973
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.331911 1.570660 5.499600 16.781637 44.738341 104.724908 233.490642
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.297630 1.492963 5.436871 17.096635 46.645254 111.158932 251.630326
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.260431 1.390916 5.281075 17.141158 47.913113 116.325888 267.507556
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.227921 1.296318 5.129514 17.174861 49.153933 121.512079 283.716464